Moff-Thoughts

Small Business, Government and Microeconomic Problems

In a terrific piece, Glen Pearson asks:

...[W]hy aren’t the true business entrepreneurs speaking out against fiefdoms like Caterpillar and working to make governments more sensitive to where the real growth is?

I thought I'd answer his question with a story.

We have an office in the west end of London Ontario.  Specifically just southwest of Hyde Park and Fanshawe Park roads.  There's a few dozen businesses back here, most of which you have never heard of.  Some of us own our own buildings, others rent from a handful of different landlords.

It is impossible to get decent internet service here.  DSL is not an option - the phone lines in the area are 40-50 years old and cannot handle the load. (Why have our phone lines never been replaced? I have no idea).   Rogers has not wired the area for cable.  The only option is to get satellite internet, which is very expensive.  We pay nearly $500 a month for 100 GB worth of bandwidth and many months we go over our cap and pay penalties for doing so.

 I have tried on four separate occasions to get a quote to get a cable run to our office (cable is available on the east side of Hyde Park road, but not the west).  I received the following four answers:

• $50,000
• $65,000
• $100,000
• You don't want it.

I'm not sure why we get a different answer each time, but we do. 

This is a pretty classic microeconomic problem. If we have the cable run to our office, it will pass many other offices who will then be able to run cables to their office for next-to-nothing.  Our installing cable will provide a pretty massive positive externality to them.  I have tried to band 25 different businesses together to each pay $2500 or so, but we've run into the classic co-ordination and free-rider problems.  This is exactly the type of externality problem that government should be involved in.  They could co-ordinate us all together, put in the cable, and charge us for it.  Heck, they could probably do so at a substantial profit.

I tried discussing this with municipal politicians from councilors to the mayor and gotten nowhere.  It was a complete and utter waste of time.  So much so that it's more profitable to simply pay the $500+ a month for satellite service than it is lobbying politicians who have zero interest in the problems of small business.

Food and Manufacturing Policy Quote of the Day

Heavy industry with the machine-building industry as its backbone is the pillar of an independent national economy. Heavy industry developed in such a way can guarantee economic and technical independence and accelerate the development of light industry and agriculture and the national economy as a whole on the basis of modern technology. Moreover, simultaneous development of light industry and agriculture, along with heavy industry, can ensure a systematic improvement of the people's living standard and faster the development of heavy industry itself. Solving the problem of food on one's own through successful farming, in particular, is of tremendous significance in providing the people with stabilized living conditions and an independent life.

- Kim Jong Il: On the Juche Idea (1982)

TD Part II - Ongoing Struggles

The more it stays the same, the less it changes! - Spinal Tap

We left off on Wednesday at 11:21am.

I received a call that afternoon around 1PM from a TD rep in Toronto.  Unfortunately I was out of the office, but called back when I returned about 10 minutes later.  The call was to let me know that TD was aware of the problem and that they were looking into it and that I'd be contacted later in the day. Good to know.

After a couple hours of talking on the phone with other banks I might take our business today, I received a call at 3:30PM from the same gentleman in Toronto. Was told that the person at my local branch had submitted my application to the wrong department, which is why I wasn't up and running on the wire notification service. Good to know, but why didn't the 'wrong department' forward the application to the right department? I didn't ask.  I wish I had.

Fun moment: Being told "I saw your blog post.  We had no idea about the extent of the problem"

Despite the time it took to fill out the last application, I was told to make an appointment with my branch manager and fill out a new application.  I was told that he had spoken to the branch manager and he was available until 5 PM.  It was around 3:45 at this point and it's a 15 minute drive to get there, so I figured if I packed up that moment I could be there by 4:30 at the latest, so I made the appointment for then.  Fortunately I had over-estimated the amount of time it would take to pack up and get there, so I got in at around 20 after.

I filled out the application for a second time with the help of the branch manager.  He was in constant contact with someone at "SBB Cash Management Sales & Implementation" in Toronto to ensure everything was filled out correctly.  For some reason on the previous application I was advised to take the Fax notification service.  This time they recommended notifications through Business Web Banking.  Doesn't matter to me either way. I received information about the Web Banking service and an account name.  I was told I would be receiving a phone call the next day with the password.  I also received a couple of e-mails from the SBB Cash Management that included instruction manuals, etc. Key point: I was told that the notification service was active as of Wednesday and any wire payments I received on Wednesday I would be notified of.

We also received 3 months of some services for free - a savings of $75.  Unnecessary, but very appreciated.  Who doesn't like free money? I also gave the branch manager the current list of wire payments I do not have information on. I was told I would receive information on them shortly.

A couple hours later, my wife went into labour, so was out of the office until today (the following Monday).

When I got into the office, I had a voicemail waiting for me.  Was from TD, letting them know that they had the password for me, but they couldn't release it over the phone and that I was to call a 1-800 number they provided.

I called the 1-800 number, explained the situation to the person and was told that "I've never heard of that before - someone needing to call this number to get a password" Are you serious?!?

He said he'd look into it.  He asked me for my Web Banking account name, which I received on Wednesday.  Gave it to him and he was able to give me a temporary password after all.

Off to the races.  After a few hiccups on my part (including typing in the provided URL as http:// instead of https://) I managed to log into the system and enter in a permanent password, etc. Found the file area where notifications are collected and there was nothing there. Which is perfecty natural if I hadn't received any wire payments.

Checked my online bank statement and we had, in fact received a wire payment that Wednesday. And remember: I was told that the notification service was active as of Wednesday and any wire payments I received on Wednesday I would be notified of.

By itself not a huge issue and there are some pretty logical explanations - perhaps the wire payment came on in Tuesday but shows up as Wednesday on our bank statement.  I don't know.  But at this point my confidence level in TD is less than zero.

Replied to an e-mail from the "SBB Cash Management" person and told her:

Hi [Name],

I have my password now and can log into the system.

I was told at the branch that the wire payment notification service would be active on May 25th and include any transactions processed on that date.  However I see that a payment came in on that date and I did not receive any notification. How can I access this information?

Best regards,

Mike

I quickly received the following response:

Hi Mike,

 Please contact the Cash Management Support Group at 1-800-668-7328 who will assist you with looking into that matter. 

Thank you, 

Not helpful at all. I'm not looking for someone to contact, I'm looking for a solution to this.  Instead of having me contact someone, instead why not have someone contact me?

Before I received the following e-mail, I sent a message to the TD Twitter contact with the message: Still having issues RE: Wire payments. I suspect this will never be resolved.  Got the response:

Mike, I'm so sorry. Let me get someone to look into this. Erin

This is much better.  I suspect if all of TDs people were as helpful and as useful as their Twitter team, this would have been solved ages ago.

A half hour later, I received a call from Toronto from the same person at the top of this post.   I explained the issue to him.  He said that the system is active, but that payment was missed for whatever reason (he mentioned something about a number being input incorrectly, which I didn't really understand) and that information about this payment would be sent to my branch along with information on the wire payments I asked for on Wednesday.

Looks like I will continue to playing the waiting game.

Wire Payments and TD Canada - A Case Study in Bad Customer Service

Before I go into my story, I would just like to state for the record that I quite like TD.  They handle most of my personal banking.  When my wife and I bought our first house they were incredibly helpful in going over what our various options were. Their branches have excellent hours, the staff are friendly and I like what they're doing on social media such as Twitter.  For personal banking, I would highly recommend them.

For business banking? A complete gong show. I would recommend all business owners steer clear of TD.

We've had a number of issues with them since day one, particularly when it comes to our Venture Line of Credit.  But relatively minor things compared to our 'wire payment' fiasco.

Over the past 18 months our company has made an effort to extend our client base outside of North America. We now have clients on four continents and we operate in 5 different currencies (Canadian and U.S. dollars, U.K. pound sterling, euros and Japanese yen). Unlike in North America where almost all of our clients wish to pay either by cheque or by credit card, our overseas clients prefer to pay via wire payment.

When we receive a wire payment it is deposited directly into our account and appears on our bank statement like this:

08/13/2010 100811S7340000FXWIRE 4101.12

The difficulty is, we don't know who sent the wire payment, what the original currency was, what fees were deducted, what the exchange rate was, etc.  In the average month we send out 50 invoices, many for quite similar amounts, so unless we are sent something by our client indicating how they paid, we have no way of knowing who the payment is for.

At first whenever we received a wire payment we called up the client that I believed most likely sent it and kept calling clients until we figured it out.  Not the most efficient use of my time and naturally I don't like bothering my clients about payments they might have sent.

Late last summer I had a few wire payments that I could not trace at all.  I printed out the information, took it to my TD branch.  Was told that they would have to do an 'investigation' but in a couple of weeks I would receive by mail photocopies of the receipts via mail.  About 3 weeks later, I received the photocopies.  Excellent! The wait was annoying, but it was nice to have the paper receipts in case we're ever audited by the CRA.

In December there were more wire payments we could not trace.  Made up a print-out, went to the TD branch closest to the office (which is not our 'home' branch) and was told, just like last time,  I would receive the results from my investigation.

Nothing arrived.

I went back in late January with an expanded list (since there were more wire payments).  Tried again with the branch by my office, this time with a different TD employee. Told the same story and...

Nothing arrived.

I started to think maybe it was just the branch by my office that was having issues.   So in March I had an even longer list and tried back with our home branch.  Was told I'd receive something in the mail, and guess what?

Nothing arrived.

On April 21, I decided to try via EasyWeb. Sent a quick message:

We have 12 wire payments that we cannot identify who they are from. Can you send us information on these?

[list]

Best regards,

Mike

Got told the following:

Hello,

We appreciate your interest in investigating the origin of multiple wire transfers. We are happy to direct you to the area that can assist you. Thank you for taking the time to write. 

We are very sorry for the lengthy delay in responding to your message and apologize that we were unable to provide you direction and assistance sooner. Due to an unexpected increase in volume, our email response times are longer than normal. Thank you for your patience. 

We are able to confirm that to request a trace of an incoming wire deposit to confirm where it came from, it is necessary to visit your TD Canada Trust Branch. 

We regret that we are unable to assist you with this request personally. Through EasyWeb Secure Messaging we are able to review your transactions and discuss your profile, however, we are unable to perform wire transfer investigations. We apologize for any inconvenience that this limitation may cause. 

We trust that this direction will help you obtain the information about the origin of your wire deposit. If you have any additional questions, please feel free to respond to this message. We are always happy to help you with your banking needs. 


Regards, 

[Name]
Internet Correspondence Representative 

Now I didn't actually tell them in the first e-mail that I was getting absolutely nowhere with my local branch.  So I wrote back:

We've done so three times, and our branch has been unable to help us. Is there any other way?

To which I received:

Hello, 

Thank you for your response. 

We regret that we are unable to assist you with this request personally. Through EasyWeb Secure Messaging we are able to review your transactions and discuss your profile, however, we are unable to perform wire transfer investigations. We apologize for any inconvenience that this limitation may cause. 

Please accept our apologies for any frustration this situation has caused. We value your business and we look forward to continuing to serve your banking needs. If you have any further questions or concerns, please contact us again. We'd be happy to assist you. 

Regards, 

[Different Person]
Internet Correspondence Representative 

In other words - there is no solution.  Sorry. Please take your business somewhere else.

Around the 1st of May, we caught a lucky break.  I had to call up TD because of an issue with our business credit card. The person on the phone was incredibly helpful and after we were done, she asked me if there was anything else I needed.  I mentioned my ongoing issues with wire payments and she mentioned that it sounded like I needed TD's "Wire Payment Notification Service" - that it would be perfect for this. Whenever we received a wire payment, we would receive via e-mail or fax, a copy of the receipt from the incoming wire payment. YESSSSS!

I had been dealing with this wire payment issues for nearly a year. I had gone into my branch 4 times and dealt with EasyWeb twice.  AT NO TIME IN MY 6 CONVERSATIONS DID ANYONE AT TD INFORM ME THIS SERVICE EXISTED. This was *exactly* what I was looking for.

She gave me a number to call and told me they could set up the service. I called the number and was told that they, in fact, could not set up the service but I would have to do it at my local branch. 

I set up an appointment at my local branch for the next day (May 4th).  I spent a good 45 minutes going over the plan and filling out the paperwork with my "investment consultant".  Got the plan all set up, was told I would receive a notification whenever a wire payment arrived and the notification services would be activated that day.  We went over the fees, but at this point I didn't really care - I was practically willing to give up my first born not to have to deal with this nonsense anymore.

On the morning of May 24th one of our employees sent me an e-mail saying [Some company from Japan] is sending us a wire payment, please let me know when it arrives. I thought to myself, "Hmm.. I wonder if we've received any wire payments since the 4th - I should check our online bank statement".

We had received 4 wire payments.  We had been notified of exactly 0.  Looks like I signed up for a notification service that doesn't notify!

I voiced my frustration on Twitter.  I also sent the following message via e-mail and via EasyWeb to TD, despite the fact that I've learned that EasyWeb is useless in this regard:

Good afternoon,

This is from [account info]

On May 4th we signed up for "Incoming Wire Payment Notification Service". Since then we have received 4 wire payments and have not been notified on any of them.

Below is a list of 17 wire payments from the past 13 months we would like information on. As well, we would like to make sure that our notification service is activated.

Best regards,

Mike 

[payments]

I received a response from my Twitter rant from TD:

@MikePMoffatt Oh no! OK, login to Easyweb & send a secure email -we'll have a rep look into ur acct to make sure it was set up correctly ^EB

Which I had already done, despite the futility in doing so.

Five hours later I received my first response via e-mail, letting me know to use EasyWeb instead:

Hello Mike,

Thank you for taking the time to contact us with your enquiry. We appreciate your concern, and would like to provide you with further direction.

Protecting our customers' privacy and confidentiality is fundamental to the way we do business. As email is not a secure channel for transmitting information, we regret that we are unable to access your portfolio and assist you via this medium. We apologize for any inconvenience this situation may present.

If you are registered for EasyWeb we encourage you to log in and contact us through the Secured Messaging service. This will ensure your request is processed in the most efficient manner. 'EasyWeb Messages' can be found on the right-hand side of the 'View Accounts' page. Please click on the link that says, 'You have X Unread Secured Messages' and select the orange 'Send a New Message' button.

For immediate assistance with your request, please contact EasyLine at 1-866-222-3456 (collect at (416) 983-5393). Representatives are available 24 hours everyday, and will be happy to provide you with further assistance.

We hope that this direction has been helpful, Mike. We apologize that we are unable to assist you directly. Please don't hesitate to reply to this email if you have any further questions.

Sincerely,

[Name]
Internet Correspondence Representative

So that's two different mediums, Twitter and e-mail, both suggesting I use EasyWeb instead.   I heard from EasyWeb 15 mintues later and the response was as follows:

Hello Mike,

We appreciate your concerns regarding the Incoming Wire Payment Notification Service. We would like to thank you for taking the time to contact us and are pleased to be able to provide you with assistance.

We are sorry to learn that you have experienced issues with this service. Unfortunately, we are not able to access the systems related to this service via this medium and are unable to assist you as a result. In order to receive assistance with this service, it would be necessary to contact your branch. It is also necessary to contact your branch to request details regarding any wire transfers that you have received. For your convenience, branch contact information can be located on our website here.

Mike, we can appreciate that this is not the response you were hoping to receive and apologize that we were unable to assist you directly. Please don't hesitate to reply to this email if you have any further questions.

Regards, 

[Different Person]
Internet Correspondence Representative 

Despite the fact I was told to go there by two different sources (Twitter, e-mail), they could do nothing for me.   The TD reps on Twitter have been very apologetic and responded with: "What a pain. So sorry. Can I get someone to give you a call?" That was 3 hours ago - hopefully I'll receive that call.

EasyWeb has continued to be useless.  Needless to say I'm losing my patience, which showed in my response:

My Branch cannot handle this issue, which is why I was sent here.

Please have someone contact me IMMEDIATELY with a solution.

A few hours later I received the response:

Good morning,

Thank you for taking the time to write to us. I am sorry to learn of your experience with TD Canada Trust. I can certainly understand your displeasure and apologize for any inconvenience caused.

I have forwarded your email to the Customer Cares Regional Manager, who will ensure that your concerns are further reviewed and that a response is provided to you.

Your feedback is important to us. Thank you for taking the time to bring your concerns to our attention.

Regards,
[Other Person]
Manager, Customer Relations 
Representing the Office of the Vice President
TD Canada Trust

That was yesterday.  As of 11:21 this morning, have not received a phonecall.

TD, you were a great bank when I was younger and my needs were more simple. But now my financial needs have matured, I think it's time I see other banks.

 

Predictions vs. Reality in London

Here are the results in London vs. my predictions. Short story: I missed how much the GPC vote would drop.

London-Fanshawe: Actual (Prediction) - Difference

NDP: 21 689 (20 000)  +1 689

CPC: 14 300 (12 000) + 2 300

LPC: 4 893 (6 000) -1 107

GPC 1 201 (3 500) - 2 299

CHP 535 (500) +35

I thought I was being cynical when I had the LPC all the way down to 6000.  I guess not.  And yeah, I really blew it with the GPC prediction.

London North Centre: Actual (Prediction) - Difference

CPC: 19 484 (17 500) +1 984

LPC: 17 765 (18 750) -985

NDP: 13 007 (13 750) -743

GPC: 2 235 (5 000) -2 765

AA: 236 (200) +36

I saw the NDP eating the LPC's lunch, and that's exactly what happened.  I didn't see the CPC increasing their vote as much as they did.  I gave the CPC a 30% chance of winning - I never saw them winning by this much. I also thought the turnout would be a fair bit higher than it was.

London West: Actual (Prediction) - Difference

CPC: 27 673 (23 000) +4 673

LPC: 16 652 (19 000) - 2 348

NDP: 16 109 (13 800) +2 309

GPC: 1 688 (4 000) -2 312

UP: 66 (200) -134

Yeah, I blew this one.  Badly. I knew Holder was well-liked in London but I underestimated how well liked he is. I thought the turnout would be up, but not this much! There has been a lot of construction in the northwest part of the riding, so maybe that has something to do with it.

Comparing London Predictions: DemocraticSpace vs. 308 vs. Me

I thought I'd look at 2 sites (http://www.democraticspace.com/ and http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/) that post riding predictions and compare their results to my own.  DemocraticSpace posts ranges, so I took the mid-point of the range for their prediction.  Both sites use complicated, sophisticated models, whereas I just made up some numbers.

Here are the 3 urban London ridings:

London North Centre - DS | 308 | Me

CPC: 34.5 | 32.7 | 31.7

NDP: 22.5 | 22.5 | 24.9

LPC: 36.5 | 37.2 | 34.0

GPC: 7.5 | 7.3 | 9.1

If the CPC pull 34.5 in the riding then the Liberals are in a world of trouble.  I'm more bullish on the NDP and GPC than the two prediction models. This will be a trend.

London West - DS | 308 | Me

CPC: 40.5 | 41.4 | 38.3

NDP: 19.5 | 19.5 | 23.0

LPC: 32.5 | 31.8 | 31.6

GPC: 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.7

I expect increased interest in this election to increase voter turnout, which should depress the CPC vote share slightly.  As such, I have trouble seeing the CPC over 40. Again, I'm a little more bullish on the NDP.

London Fanshawe - DS | 308 | Me

CPC: 32.5 | 28.6 | 28.6

NDP: 47.5 | 50.9 | 47.6

LPC: 15.5 | 15.3 | 14.2

GPC: 3.5 | 4.3 | 8.3

Again, a landslide.  I'm far more bullish about the GPC.  I figure the lack of strategic voting should help the party here.

 

Thoughts on London-Fanshawe

NDP candidate Irene Mathyssen won by 5,000 votes over the CPC last election.

I grew up in this riding - I lived down the street from Tweedsmuir P.S. in the Hamilton/Gore area of east London. (In fact, I've lived in all 3 urban ridings in London, each for approx. 10 years)  The weekend before the debate I was driving through my old neighbourhood and it seemed that every 3rd house had an NDP sign.  And this is before the NDP were moving up in the polls.

The Green candidate, Matthew Peloza, has done a good job of stepping into Daniel O'Neail's shoes. He won the nomination quite early and has been working hard to gain supporters and financing.  Tons of GPC - Peloza signs in the riding. There's also a surprising number of CHP signs.

This one is going to be a landslide.  My guess:

NDP: 20 000 (47.6%)+/- 3000

CPC: 12 000  (28.6%) +/- 2000

LIB: 6 000 (14.2%) +/- 2500

GPC: 3 500 (8.3%) +/- 1500

CHP: 500 (1.2%) +/- 300

 

 

Thoughts on London West

Here are my thoughts on London West.

The Conservatives took this riding from the Liberals in 2008 by just over 2 100 votes.  Before the campaign, though, I would have called this one a coin-flip even if both parties were at the same popularity levels in Ontario.  The Liberal candidate, Doug Ferguson, had a few things in his favour:

• The former Liberal incumbent Sue Barnes, seemed to be going through the motions over the last few years.  A lot of Liberals in the riding stayed home in 2008, as shown by a 3 000 drop in turnout.  This is more dramatic than it sounds, since the population of the riding has been on the rise.
• The Green candidate in the 2008 election, Monica Jarabek ran a very strong, very well financed (by Green standards) campaign.  The Greens just missed receiving 10% in the polls, which many on the Green team blamed on May's apparent call for strategic voting.  The riding association blew up spectacularly after the campaign, with Jarabek leaving the Greens for the Liberals.  If you ever meet me in person, ask me about it sometime.  Anyhow, the current Green candidate Brad Corbett is excellent, but he does not have access to the funding or the organization Monica built up.

Working in Holder's favour:

• He's the incumbent in the riding, he's much better known than he was in 2008, and like Glen Pearson, he's an unbelievably nice guy.
• Peter Ferguson, the NDP candidate, is running again and has more name recognition than he had in 2008.  Since he'd pull more votes away from the Liberals than the Conservatives, this helps Holder.

To me that balances out the 2 100 votes from last election, so I would have called this one a coin flip.

Not any more. Although Holder badly bungled the Diamond Aircraft file in the early part of the campaign, the province wide shift from the LPC to NDP is going to give this one to Holder.

My best guesses:

CPC: 23 000 (38.3%) +/- 1500

LPC: 19 000 (31.6%) +/- 3000

NDP: 13 800 (23.0%) +/- 3500

GPC: 4 000 (6.7%) +/- 1500

UP: 200 (0.3%) +/- 150

Here's where my uncertainty is stemming from:

1. I'm uncertain what the voter turn-out will be, due to a combination of population increase in the riding and interest in this election. I have the turnout to be about the same as in 2006 and up 2 500 or so from 2008.
2. I'm uncertain how much of the overall NDP surge will make it to this riding, and what proportion of those people will be drawn from the LPC and GPC.
3. I'm uncertain how a less close race than 2008 will pull fewer people away from the NDP and GPC and towards the LPC.

I give the Tories a 90% chance of taking this one, the Liberals a 10% chance and the NDP no chance.

 

Election Day Wagers

Election day has arrived which means one thing - an excuse to gamble.   Here are some bets that have been made on Twitter.  I hope these encourage you to make your own.  If you do make a bet, please let me know at @MikePMoffatt (note: Two f's, Two t's in last name).

Bets seem to be taking two forms: How many seats a particular party will win and the outcome of particular ridings.

Proposition 1: Which candidate will win London West. @jesse_helmer picks Ferguson - LPC, @MikePMoffatt picks Holder - CPC.

Stakes: If Helmer wins, Moffatt is to post picture of himself holding a Ferguson - LPC sign and post on Twitter.  If Moffatt wins, Helmer is to post picture of himself holding a Caroline Rioux - GPC Ottawa--Vanier sign.

Proposition 2: Which candidate will win Etobicoke-Lakeshore. @scottfeschuk picks Ignatieff - LPC, @colbycosh takes the field (a.k.a. anyone else).

Stakes: $50.

Proposition 3: How many seats will the BQ win overall. @MikePMoffatt picks over 10, @scottfeschuk picks under 10.

Stakes: Winner picks loser's Twitter avatar for a day.

Proposition 4: How many seats will the CPC win overall. @MikePMoffatt picks over 130, @emilytroy picks under 130.

Stakes: Loser must take a pic of themselves holding a sign of winner's choosing.

Proposition 5: How many seats will the NDP win overall. @scottfeschuk picks over 90, [unknown] picks under 90.

Stakes: Winner picks loser's Twitter avatar for a day.

Proposition 6a: Conservative seats vs. Liberal and NDP ones. @MikePMoffatt picks CPC > LPC + NDP, @pkbwood picks CPC < LPC + NDP.

Stakes: Loser buys the first round.

Proposition 6b: Conservative seats vs. Liberal and NDP ones. @MikePMoffatt picks CPC > LPC + NDP, @rockbandprogram picks CPC < LPC + NDP.

Stakes: One pint.

 

Proposition 7: How many seats will the GPC win overall. @MikePMoffatt picks 1 or more, Rebecca Young (not on Twitter) picks 0.

Stakes: If Young wins, Moffatt is to post picture of himself holding an NDP sign while on a bicycle and post on Twitter.  If Moffatt wins, Young is to post picture of herself holding a GPC sign and post it on Facebook.

Proposition 8: Which candidate will win Saanich—Gulf Islands. Jana Seijts [Facebook] picks Lunn - CPC, @MikePMoffatt picks May - GPC.

Stakes: The loser has to have their face painted green and a post a picture on Facebook.

Proposition 9: How many seats will the LPC win overall. Jana Seijts [Facebook] picks over 45, @MikePMoffatt picks under 45.

Stakes: Loser must take a pic of themselves holding a sign of winner's choosing and post on Facebook.

Thoughts on London North Centre - T-1 Day to Election

A few thoughts on my home riding.

Last election Glen Pearson (LPC) defeated Paul Van Meerbergen (CPC) by 3 300 votes.  Going into this campaign there were 3 things working in Glen's favour:

• Van Meerbergen was (and is) a very well-known, albeit controversial, city councillor, whereas the current CPC candidate Truppe is not very well known in the riding. I figure this should add about 400-600 votes to the difference, between CPCers staying home and CPCers switching to LPC (which counts double).
• The Green Party recorded 5 600 votes last campaign, thanks to an excellent campaign by Mary Anne Hodge.  Hodge is running again, but the GPC is down somewhat in the polls from '08. I would guess that all else being equal, this drops the GPC vote by 600-800, with 150-250 going to Pearson (the rest staying home or going to the NDP, so no boost to the CPC).
• Although the NDP candidate last election was not all that well known (Steve Holmes), the current candidate is less so (German Gutierrez). Guiterrez ran in the last municipal election and received approximately 4 votes (actually it was around 150, but who is counting?) I figure this would add another 50-150 votes to Pearson's total without boosting the CPC.

So instead of a 3 300 vote gap, we would be looking at a 3 800 - 4 200 vote gap. A fairly comfortable victory.  Before the campaign I would have put the odds of the Liberals winning at around 95-98%.

With the Liberals falling in the polls, now it is a lot less certain.  I still think Pearson and the Liberals will take the riding.  Between the Greens and Animal Alliance (the only small party in the riding), there should be around 89-92% of the vote left to split between the NDP, Liberals and Tories.  I have trouble seeing the CPC doing better than the 33% they got last time.  A lot has to break right for a party to win with at most 33% when 90% is up for grabs. (33/29/28 gets you there but 33/34/23 doesn't)  And I have trouble seeing the NDP at more than 25-28% in this riding.

My prediction is that Pearson takes the riding by 1 000 - 1 500 votes over the CPC.  Approx 18.5K-19K for the LPC, 17.5K for the CPC, 13.5-14K for the NDP and 5K for the GPC.

Although I voted GPC and although I had a Twitter spat with Glen Pearson yesterday, I would be happy with such a result. Glen has been a very good MP and is an even better person.

Updated to add: I was curious to see what those numbers would mean as far as percentage of votes.  Assuming 200 votes for the Animal Alliance candidate and using the midpoint of the ranges, it breaks down as follows:

LPC: 18 750 (34.0%)

CPC: 17 500 (31.7%)

NDP: 13 750 (24.9%)

GPC: 5 000 (9.1%)

AA: 200 (0.4%)

I have the turnout up about 1 500 from last election, hence the fall in the CPC percentage with the approx. the same number of votes.

On a personal level, I wouldn't be too thrilled with this outcome, as the GPC are about 500-600 votes shy of receiving a campaign refund.

These look pretty reasonable to me.  Although historically the NDP have performed average-to-slightly-above in this riding relative to the rest of the province, I don't see that happening here due to Pearson's personal popularity and NDP-LPC fence sitters believing the LPC is the best chance to prevent a CPC victory.

Update 2: Unbelievably hypocritical of me to only have point estimates.  So here are confidence intervals:

LPC: 18 750 +/- 2000

CPC: 17 500  +/- 1200

NDP: 13 750 +/- 3000

GPC: 5 000 +/- 1000

AA: 200 +/- 150

Here's where my uncertainty is stemming from:

1. I'm uncertain what the voter turn-out will be, due to a combination of population increase in the riding and interest in this election.
2. I'm uncertain how much of the overall NDP surge will make it to this riding, and what proportion of those people will be drawn from the LPC and GPC.
3. I'm uncertain how a close race will pull people away from the NDP and GPC and towards the LPC.

Given what I've written above I believe I've probably over-estimated the GPC. 4500 +/- 1000 is a better estimate.

I'd give the odds of each party winning as LPC: 65%, CPC: 30%, NDP: 5%. And 5% is probably pushing it - I just can't see the NDP winning here, but it's been a really weird election.